3rd November 2025
Oxford Economics highlights the barriers in energy and finance that could prevent low-income countries from capitalizing on the boost to growth from Artificial Intelligence, narrowing global inequality and fuelling sustainable economic growth.
LONDON/ABU DHABI - Low-income countries (LICs) could realise up to $75 trillion in annual economic gains by closing key gaps in energy access and capital markets, according to a new report by Oxford Economics, substantially narrowing the global divide in living standards.
The report, “Powering Low Income Countries’ AI Opportunity,” was presented 2 November at the Energy & AI: Twin Engines Turbo Charging Economic Growth event at ENACT event in Abu Dhabi by John Walker, Chairman of Oxford Economics. It emphasizes that while Artificial Intelligence could be a transformative economic force, LICs can only fully benefit by advancing access to reliable, affordable energy and deepening financial inclusion.
The analysis estimates that improving energy access could contribute $53 trillion, while expanded access to capital could add a further $22 trillion annually to the global economy.
The average GDP per capita in LICs is approximately $4,800—just one-eleventh of that in high-income economies, now at $54,100 (PPP terms), the report notes.
“Low-income countries could be uniquely well placed to benefit,” Walker said. “Take, for example, the impact on jobs. In high-income countries AI is likely to disrupt most jobs.”
“But in low-income countries, the skills mix is different and only around a quarter of existing jobs are likely to be impacted. While productivity gains could raise incomes and consumer spending power,” he added.
Key Findings:
- Doubling down on energy and capital access could close 43% of the current living standards gap between LICs and high-income countries, benefitting nearly 3.7 billion people.
- Case studies in Brazil, India, Morocco, and South Africa show that strategic investments in AI-powered finance platforms and renewable energy can trigger broader economic transformation.
- Only 26% of jobs in LICs are highly exposed to AI, compared with 60% in high-income countries—signalling both a challenge and an opportunity for future-proof development.
“Artificial Intelligence can be a powerful engine for growth, but only if foundational barriers are addressed,” said Innes McFee, Chief Global Economist at Oxford Economics. “Our research shows the true global prize depends on delivering reliable energy and robust capital markets to the billions who remain underserved. Coordinated public-private investment in these foundations will allow AI to drive transformative, inclusive growth far beyond today’s technology leaders.”
The report profiles successful AI and infrastructure investment models from Morocco’s MASEN renewable program to advanced financial inclusion platforms in the Gulf and beyond. These examples underline the growing capacity of Middle Eastern public and private sectors to export technology, expertise and capital to where it can deliver maximum sustainable impact.
“Building AI-ready economic infrastructure is not just a local imperative, but a regional and global opportunity,” said Debra D'Agostino, Oxford Economics' Managing Director of Thought Leadership. “With the right partnerships and vision, the Middle East can help drive a new era of inclusive, technology-driven growth from the region to the world.”
The report highlights a five-point action plan for policymakers and business leaders:
- Build modern, resilient energy infrastructure, prioritizing renewable sources.
- Expand financial access through digital platforms and inclusive regulation.
- Equip the workforce with practical skills to participate in the AI economy.
- Create transparent, investable policy environments to attract capital.
- Foster partnerships across government, business, and civil society to accelerate adoption and localize benefits.
Whether AI becomes a catalyst for LICs will not only depend on the technology itself but also policy, investment, and partnership choices, D’Agostino added.
“By acting early to build enabling conditions and local capabilities, countries can tilt the balance toward opportunity and shared gains,” she said. “International cooperation and targeted investment are key to ensure AI catalyses not more inequality but shared global prosperity.”